In 2022, an F-16 fighter pilot will pull hard to the right and roll in an attempt to avoid the aircraft behind them. They won’t make it. Years of training and experience will suddenly become redundant. The AI algorithm controlling the chase plane will change the face of war forever.
AI first demonstrated the kinds of aerobatic skills required for dogfighting in 2008. Andrew Ng’s team at Stanford University developed an AI-piloted helicopter that learned how to perform stunts simply by observing human pilots. The question then was: how long could the human pilots maintain their advantage?
The answer: not much more. In August 2020 DARPA, the US Department of Defense’s research agency, said an algorithm had beaten a human pilot in a simulated dogfight. Eight AI pilots went head-to-head, with the winner from Maryland-based Heron Systems facing off against an F-16 pilot in five simulated dogfights. AI beats human 5-0.
In 2021 China’s own artificial intelligence battles a human pilot, Fang Guoyu, a group leader in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. “It wasn’t hard to win at first,” Fang said. But the AI learned from each encounter and managed to defeat him by the end.
Beyond the simulator, the Pentagon says it intends to pit humans against machines in 2023. But as China also advances, it is likely to withdraw this program by 2022.
Militarized AI will bring many changes. Without a pilot to consider, planes can be reengineered, allowing them to maneuver in ways no human can tolerate. It also makes increasing the Air Force much easier than today, when it takes years to train those few people qualified enough to be a fighter pilot. Soon we can expect large swarms of lightning-fast ships in the sky, all operating in concert. Small hordes are already being tested in the US and elsewhere. While US Air Force generals envision their new drones operating alongside humans as “loyal servants,” this is more a reflection of their cultural biases than the need to risk human pilots in the danger zone—well-protected enemy air space, with degraded communications.
The question, of course, is who will win if these US and Chinese AI forces ever collide? The advantage of an AI fighter is in its algorithms, not its engines or missiles. This means constantly updating the program to stay ahead of competing systems. 2022 will show us that future warfare will be a matter of clever coding, not brave flying.
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This article was originally published by WIRED UK
