The first images of Russia’s new invasion of Ukraine seemed to presage a fairly traditional ground war: tank battles, artillery fire and planes flying low over cities. But even as Western leaders tried to devise a strong response to Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked aggression, they did so cautiously, aware that the dramatic escalation in Eastern Europe could spill over into two new areas with far greater implications for the world beyond: cyberspace and nuclear weapons.
In a speech early Thursday morning Moscow time, Putin announced what he called a “special military operation” and issued a stark warning against Western interference. “No matter who tries to stand in our way or even more so create threats to our country and our people, they should know that Russia will respond immediately and the consequences will be the likes of which you have not seen in your entire history.” he said. said in remarks officially translated by the Kremlin that appeared to leave no doubt about the threat of nuclear retaliation.
The comments immediately resonated as the most immediate nuclear danger the world has faced since President Donald Trump threatened North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with “fire and fury” amid an exchange of bellicose rhetoric in 2017. This is all the more troubling given Russia’s unprovoked invasion, Putin’s diabolical attitude toward international condemnation, and the very real danger of intentional and unintentional escalation between Russia and the West in the coming days. The world’s two major nuclear superpowers haven’t engaged in a serious nuclear arms jumble in decades, and Russia’s previous cyberattacks on Ukraine have spread, causing billions of dollars worth of damage to Western networks and companies.
While the nuclear threat has largely receded from public consciousness in the more than quarter-century since the end of the Cold War, the US and Russia still possess thousands of nuclear weapons; both have around 6,500 in their current inventory, although a smaller number are kept ready in silos, bombers and submarines. Far from a remnant of the Cold War, nuclear weapons are a more present threat today than they have been at any time in the 21st century.
Both the US and Russia have spent billions upgrading their nuclear weapons in recent years, and nearly 90 percent of Russia’s nuclear stockpile has been modernized, including developing new weapons and installing new cruise missile systems on its bombers. The Trump administration also withdrew from the 30-year-old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 after citing Russia’s efforts to develop and field such an intermediate-range missile, known as the SSC-8. Moreover, Russia’s nuclear capability is more opaque to the US than it has been in years since the Trump administration pulled the US out of Open Skies, a long-held treaty that allows special unarmed surveillance flights to monitor adversaries’ nuclear readiness.
Amid a military build-up in recent weeks on Ukraine’s borders, Putin specifically cited a fictional story that Ukraine is trying to restore its own nuclear capabilities, which it abandoned in the 1990s amid Western efforts to secure the vast arsenals left behind by the collapse of the Soviet Union. “If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and in Europe will change dramatically, especially for us, for Russia,” Putin said on Tuesday. “We cannot fail to react to this real danger, especially since, let me repeat, Western patrons of Ukraine can help it acquire these weapons to create another threat to our country.
