In 50 years, instead of 218 countries, there will be 600 cities

The last speaker at the Synergy Global Forum was Kjell Nordström, a professor at the Swedish School of Economics who wrote Funky Business. At Kjella's speech, exactly 50% of the audience left the hall (they simply did not understand what he was talking about), which quite accurately describes what is happening with Russian business. A domestic entrepreneur with each speaker waited for a person to appear on the stage and say: “Well, boy, look - this is a cow. From here the milk, you do it like this with your hands, then you beat it here, you get butter. Then you cut it into rectangles, put it in this piece of paper, call it with this one, set this margin, this is how much you earn, you put it in that safe. " Everyone is waiting for concrete solutions, win-win actions and proven concepts. That is why we did not have Google, Uber, Tesla and Apple. It is necessary to go beyond the limits of everyday consciousness, but for now, this is difficult.

Kjell appears on stage as a deity. He is almost 60, he is a long and completely bald tower in glasses with a thick fashionable rim. His black shirt merges with black jeans, he is as flexible as a liquid that fills the space. A falling stream of numbers from the Matrix appears in the background, but the numbers are acid purple because the future is here. People leave the hall in rows, and I wash my hands in blood, trying to write down every word Kjell said.

I am very vaguely and briefly sharing some theses, because everything that Nordstrom wrote in 2003 came true to within a gram.

1. We are at the beginning of the fastest urbanization of humanity. The key concept here is "in the beginning". It seems to us that everything has already happened and started spinning, but in fact, this is just a start. Apple Pay came to Russia about a month ago, but even now no saleswoman at the checkout is surprised that you pay with your phone. Plastic cards died, and we didn't even notice it.

2. Countries die as structures. In 50 years, instead of 218 countries, there will be 600 cities. In 25 years, for example, there will be no Austria, because now Austria is Vienna and some small towns nearby. This will happen due to a change in the system of perception of information, the development of transport and technology in general. That is, now an Englishman comes to Moscow and his son says to him: “Dad, let's go to Nizhny Novgorod!”, And dad refuses, because it is far away, another city, but in a few decades Russia will conditionally turn into Moscow, Yekaterinburg and Vladivostok, and Nizhny Novgorod will become just a district of Moscow, which can be reached from Red Square (will it then be Red?) in a matter of minutes.

3. Anything that can be digitized will be digitized. Medicine, security, education, the army - absolutely everything.

4. Read about the FAANG system. This is the foundation of a new reality: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google.

5. The matrix is ​​powerful, but it does not change the principles of making money. There is a monopoly - there is money, there is no monopoly - there is no money. We hate IKEA, but we go there time after time. Why? Think about the principles of innovation that underpin the temporary monopoly. Here is Lady Gaga - a temporary monopoly in the world of entertainment. If you are hosting a party and have invited Gaga there, and she is sick, then you cannot replace her with anyone. This is what creates the value of the product. Impossibility of replacement in consciousness. Once Volvo released the Model 242: the wretched and ugliest car in the universe, but Volvo came up with the idea of ​​a temporary monopoly - absolute safety and this concept could not be replaced with anything. Then Toyota took over the idea of ​​security for a temporary monopoly, then Mercedes, and after a few years Volvo lost its position in the market and was sold to the Chinese. In order to create a temporary monopoly, individuality must be returned.

And the four pillars of the life of a person who flies into outer space:

1. Information develops in such a way that we get stupid every morning. After 5 years, when hiring, the boss will not choose whether to take Vasya, who knows English, or Lesha, who does not. It will be about whether to take Vasya with an advanced or very advanced level. The rest will have no place in the world. Information develops every day, but we do not. In the new paradigm, we are all amateurs, but this creates tremendous business opportunities because we need companies that will continually close the gap between new information and our knowledge. Now no company can do it alone.

2. The world has become multipolar. By linking existing systems together, we create systems of a new order. If you are trying to make phones, then forget about planning. Until you complete the development plan, technologies have changed 200 times already. In the new reality, you need to go through trial and error.

3. The value of higher education becomes negligible. Knowledge in the university world has ceased to be unique, the matrix destroys the monopoly on knowledge. You do not need Harvard for knowledge from Harvard, so if 5 years ago the graduate crust gave you the green light to enter any corporation, now all this knowledge is available to anyone who wishes, and the only question is about the imminent death of physical degrees. This is a matter of several years. That is, if you have now decided to start earning so that your child will go to university in 10 years, then do not waste time on this. Universities will cease to exist in our usual understanding. Articulated knowledge is necessary, but it does not guarantee your success.

When hiring, we often look at the skills of the applicant, and then we train him in human relations, and the matrix allows us to do the opposite. Find a person with whom you are as comfortable as possible and train him in knowledge. Anyone can become a professional. Not everyone can become a pleasant person for you.

4. We perceive life as a series of transactions. We are constantly negotiating. All machines and technologies reduce transaction costs in any kind of human activity.

And a very important dynamic: the number of households with one person is increasing at an incredible rate. We all begin to exist together one by one with the help of machines. In Sweden in 2008 there were 48% of households with 1 person. Now there are 56% of such households, but this is not a reason for suffering, but only the fact of the need to recognize evolution and the fact of the need to adapt to evolution.

The stupidest thing that a person can do is attempts to stop evolution. Think. Develop. Already now we have more information in our heads than we can tell.