“It’s clear that Putin is angry, isolated and more unhinged than I’ve ever seen him,” said James Clapper, a former lieutenant general in the U.S. Air Force who spent half a century as a U.S. intelligence officer and during Obama administration has been the nation’s longest-serving director of national intelligence. “His statements and comments are really out of character for him. I always thought he was cold and pragmatic, but apparently his emotions get the better of him.”
So far, Putin’s threats have seemed less offensive than defensive, less a promise to unleash global thermonuclear war on the West than a warning that Western alliances should limit their direct aid to Ukraine. Indeed, the nuclear alarm may have been over-interpreted by the Western media; The Russian military has a four-level warning system, similar to the five-level DEFCON system that the US uses. Putin’s warning raised its defense readiness from the lowest level to the next highest, meaning it is still two levels from a combat position. (The Biden administration, for its part, notably did not raise US or NATO military readiness levels in response, in what appeared to be an attempt to de-escalate tensions heading into the week.)
However, Putin — whose military has fared far worse in Ukraine than anyone expected and has faced severe, embarrassing setbacks — also seems unlikely to accept defeat or stalemate in Ukraine. “We are in a really dangerous place; after pushing all the chips in the pot and failing so far, he is stepping up the brutality and targeting of civilians and threatening nuclear consequences if we all continue to help Ukraine,” says Shaik. “This is a really dangerous moment… I can think of a bunch of ways this could go wrong.”
Dmitry Alperovich, a cybersecurity veteran who co-founded Crowdstrike and founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, says the scope and speed of the economic sanctions against Russia must have caught Putin by surprise. “This will have a devastating impact on Russia and its economy,” he says. “I’m afraid we’re putting him in a position where he has nothing to lose.”
It seems likely that Russia’s actions, both in Ukraine and potentially in cyberspheres abroad, will only grow in violence and intensity. “Putin escalating and escalating to prevent a loss is the most likely scenario,” Shaik says. “It’s hard for me to see what the face-saving option is for Russia.”
