For Europe, the outcome of next week’s US election will have profound consequences. NATO funding is at stake, as is a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Forecasts show that a trade war with Donald Trump could hit the GDP of the bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, by 1.5 percent. The future of big tech, by comparison, is sideways but heavy. President Joe Biden’s administration has ushered in a new era of confrontation with companies like Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia, all of which faced lawsuits during his administration. A proposal to break up Google is still pending.
Unlike many other places in the world where American technology reigns supreme, when the European Union introduces new rules, these companies pay attention. In the Biden era, the EU has found an ally in its ambitions to harness big tech, says Max von Thun, director of Europe and transatlantic partnerships at the Open Markets Institute. “Under Trump or really even under [former president Barack] Obama, he felt that if the EU went too far, there would be a backlash from the US,” von Thun explains, meaning regulators believe ordering the companies to break up their businesses is out of the question. “Whereas under Biden, as the US is pursuing these types of remedies, the EU thinks we can do that as well.”
Many in Brussels would like this alignment to continue. Most Europeans obey American search engines, scroll through American social media feeds and shop on American e-commerce sites. There is a long-standing concern that the dominance of the Big Five – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft – is stifling European competition and misleading consumers. This is not just a problem for EU regulators. It also occupies the minds of ordinary Americans, according to Democratic pollster Lake Research Partners. A poll of 600 likely voters in seven key battleground states and Ohio found that 67 percent believe corporate power — and the lack of government opposition — is one of the country’s biggest problems. With the new Digital Markets Act, Europe has made clear its intention to limit the reach of tech giants. However, implementing these new rules would be much easier with buy-in from America.
The big tech politics of this election are messed up. Silicon Valley titans are divided between Democrats and Republicans. During their campaigns, both Trump and Kamala Harris did not commit to how they would regulate the world’s largest companies. Trump hinted vaguely that “something” needs to be done with Google to make the company “fairer.” Harris, meanwhile, has so far been silent on whether she agrees with Democratic megadonor and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who characterized the FTC’s antitrust policies as a “war on American business.”
It’s unclear how far Harris would continue Biden’s relatively confrontational approach. Biden departed from the policies of his own rival Obama, who hit back at European controls on Google and Facebook by accusing the bloc of protectionism, saying European companies “can’t compete.” Harris’s own comments on antitrust law are scarce, though she has long expressed an interest in data protection. “I think Facebook has experienced tremendous growth and has prioritized its growth over the best interest of its users — especially on the issue of privacy,” she said in a 2019 interview with CNN. When pressed on whether the company should be broken up, she replied: “Yes, I think we should seriously look at that.”
But big tech hawks in Brussels are keeping a close eye on Harris’ ties to Silicon Valley. Her brother-in-law, Tony West, who acts as a close adviser, is Uber’s chief legal officer. The company announced in August that he would take an unpaid leave of absence to focus on the campaign. Google lawyer Karen Dunn also connected with Harris and prepared her for the ABC debate last month.
