Every November, the Global Carbon Project publishes the annual global CO2 emissions. This is never good news. At a time when the world needs to cut emissions, the numbers continue to rise. However, while emissions are moving in the wrong direction, many of the underlying economic forces driving them are on the right track. This may be the year these various forces push hard enough to tip the balance.
In 2022 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it expects global energy emissions to peak by 2025. This estimate marks a big change from the previous year, driven by accelerated investment in low-carbon technologies after the war in Ukraine. Rystad Energy — another research and analyst group — also expects to peak by 2025. Ember Climate—the leading source of global electricity data—estimates that global electricity emissions have already peaked in 2022. Analysts may disagree on the exact date, but it is clear that peak emissions are already within our borders.
The world is already gradually decarbonizing its electricity. Solar and wind power grow rapidly in 2024 as well. these two sources of renewable energy can outpace the increase in electricity demand. If that happens, burning coal and gas will decrease, as will emissions.
Not surprisingly, when we actually reach peak emissions will depend a lot on the world’s biggest emitter, China. In 2023 its emissions continue to rise. This is partly due to the ongoing recovery from Covid-19. The ongoing drought also means hydroelectric power production has fallen. These factors again underscore how difficult it is to predict these things: An unexpected event can always tip the peak into another record year.
China’s peak will come soon, however, due to record-high deployment of solar and wind power and an increase in nuclear power. The country will soon add enough sustainable energy to meet its growing electricity demand. China’s solar and wind energy production is already enough to cover the total electricity consumption of some of the world’s largest economies such as Canada, Brazil, Russia, Japan and even the world’s most populous country, India. Only in 2023. could add enough to cover all UK electricity consumption.
Another reason global emissions could peak in 2024 is the electric car revolution. Global sales of petrol and diesel cars peaked half a decade ago, and the IEA has estimated that almost one in five cars sold globally in 2023 will be electric. The agency previously did not expect that milestone to be reached until 2030. (In 2020, that figure was just 4 percent.) This shift to electric vehicles will begin to affect global oil demand by the time it peaks. According to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, this could happen as early as 2027.
Of course, peak emissions are just the beginning. Then the world needs it I’m decreasing emissions and fast. But the downward slope will be easier than the tipping point, since the energy transition will no longer be in its infancy. We hope that 2024 will mark the beginning of a mature low-carbon global economy.
