The term “supercycle” often emerges when a new iPhone model is anticipated to drive exceptional sales. However, the expected surge might not fully materialize. While the iPhone remains a dominant force in the smartphone market, several factors suggest a more nuanced reality.
Recent data shows that while iPhone sales remain significant, their growth may be plateauing. In the first three quarters of 2024, Apple sold 151.3 million iPhones, which is the same as previous year. While this demonstrates stability, it doesn’t indicate a dramatic increase in sales.
The iPhone 16 Plus, positioned in the middle of the lineup, is a key model. However, its pricing might not be compelling enough to drive massive sales. It is more expensive than the base iPhone 16, but has features that are less attractive than the Pro models.
While Apple’s revenue from iPhone sales is still substantial, accounting for nearly half of its total quarterly revenue in Q4 2024, this dominance isn’t necessarily indicative of a supercycle. The iPhone market share in the global smartphone market was around 17% in Q3 2024. This shows Apple holds a good position, but not that it completely dominates the market.
Furthermore, the global smartphone market is seeing increased competition, particularly from brands in China. This increased competition may limit the growth of iPhone sales.
The introduction of Apple Intelligence AI tools was expected to boost iPhone 16 sales. However, the real-world impact on consumer demand remains to be seen. While this new technology may be promising, it might not be enough to trigger a supercycle.
Overall, while Apple remains a key player in the smartphone market, the idea of a dramatic “supercycle” for the iPhone 16 might be an overstatement. The iPhone continues to be a strong seller, but market dynamics suggest that sales might not reach the heights some expect. The evolution of the smartphone market and other competitive factors are likely to play a significant role in iPhone sales going forward.
